1)

Sometimes I feel like I can sense myself doing a Bayesian update, and other times I can't.

2, 3

2)

1

When I try doing some explicit calculations, I sometimes feel an update, and other times I don't. What's up with this?

3

\(\quad\)2a) Hypothesis You've forgotten some relevant facts

\(\quad\)2b) Hypothesis You're hiding some relevant facts from yourself

\(\quad\)2c) Hypothesis Your fragments of you're brain which encode your beliefs aren't being accessed by your deliberative mind.

\(\quad\)2d) Hypothesis Your update is too small.

\(\quad\)2e) Hypothesis You've already accounted for these facts, and there's no need to update on this again.

3)

1, 2

Phenomenologically, my updates remind me a little of X's where he says he can do a kind of pulse to update across his brain, sensing the logical consequences/relevant beliefs that he will update from. He describes it as more of a proprioception based feel for the linkage of ideas, a topological sense rather than visual.